TREND ANALYSIS OF NIGERIA'S PUBLIC DEBT AND ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE FROM 1960 TO 2023
Authors
E. D. Oloja-Ojabo
Nigerian Army University Biu, Borno State
Author
Harir A. I. Mohammed
Nigerian Army University Biu, Borno State
Author
S. Haruna
Nigerian Army University Biu, Borno State
Author
Keywords:
Public Debt,
Economic Performance,
Inflation,
Nigeria,
ARMA
Abstract
This study analysed the trend of Nigeria's public debt and economic performance from 1960 to 2023. Using graphical analysis, correlation, and covariance, the study examined the trends of public debt, economic growth, and inflation in Nigeria. Findings showed that the variables trended upward over time, with inflation showing sharp rises and falls, while public debt and economic growth showed smoother upward trends. Forecasts using Auto Regressive Moving Average regression indicated that these variables will continue to trend upward. The study recommends broader investigation into the impact of public debt on economic performance and the influence of contemporary issues such as corruption and insecurity.
