FOOD PRICES IN NIGERIA, IMPLICATIONS ON POPULATION HEALTH: AN ARDL APPROACH

Abstract

Measures, like Nigeria Health Sector Renewal Investment Initiative (NHSRII), in 2023, increased healthcare funding in 2025 aims at improving population health to increase individual and aggregate productivity over time by boosting physical and mental capacities which is becoming increasingly vital for economic growth and development in Nigeria, but despite all effort population health remains unsatisfactory with life expectancy of 53.6 and many living below poverty threshold. Food price inflation, sanitation, school enrollment, health expenditure were analysed by using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) method in explaining population health in Nigeria The outcome shows that in the long run increase in food prices was negative and statistically significantly with life expectancy and positive and significant with infant mortality rate, improved sanitation shows a positive and substantial link with life expectancy at birth and negative with infant mortality rate while secondary school enrollment shows negative and non-significant link with life expectancy and per capita health expenditure also indicate a positive but insignificant relationship. These results has significant implication for health policy formulation. The study, therefore, recommend policymakers to prioritise actions aimed at stabilising and reducing food costs, including subsidies for critical food items, enhancements in agricultural production, and initiatives to alleviate supply chain disruptions. This could be achieved by promoting local farmers to reduce reliance on import foods, school feeding program be initiated, ensuring real time monitoring of food price and improve access to sanitation service.